I recall hearing on sports radio in Seattle last season one of those baseball ‘experts’ say Houston was two years away, would not be in the playoffs , and yada, yada , yada. I also heard the same statement made at the all-star game. Houston will fall, they are too young, blah, blah, blah. It was said by many. Based on what?
My question is what sabermetrics, what algebraic calculations made Houston two years away. First off the statement is vague. Two years from what? The playoffs, the World Series, moving to Tahiti? What will happen in two years? That is what I wanted to know, but nobody thought to ask.
Did this person, and he was not the only one, have a crystal ball? Or did he read tea leaves, or perhaps it was tarot cards.
In an era when talking heads say any dumb thing to get Twitter followers and more gigs on radio and TV sports shows in order to get a higher profile, there are many who simply repeat the prevailing thoughts of the day without questioning what everyone is saying.
Does it occur to anyone to wonder what it is in two years that would make a difference. Are there more young players in the minors to put them over the hump? What happens to injuries of minor leaguers, injuries to major leaguers, trades, off seasons by those who were highly touted, and oh no, suspensions.
The facts are that teams expected to win will lose, teams expected to lose will win, teams two years away are relevant now. In sports nothing can be calculated over a period of time because each year is different, each season presenting surprises.
What is consistent are talking heads whose hot air blustering sounds like Rosanne Barr singing the National Anthem.
My fictional account of Charlie Faust and the 1911 New York Giants is found here in E-Book form on Amazon.